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This rivalry has been more competitive than the head-to-head record would suggest. That said, there is no doubt about who is the better tennis player. Novak Djokovic has won 21 Grand Slam titles and five ATP Finals. Taylor Fritz, who qualified for the season-ending championships only after world #1 Carlos Alcaraz withdrew with an abdominal injury, has enjoyed a breakthrough season, but he remains unaccustomed to breathing the same rarefied air as Djokovic.
The Californian won the biggest title of his career earlier this year, lifting the title in Indian Wells. Djokovic has won that event five times. Still, there are some reasons for Fritz to feel confident. He enjoyed a day of rest on Friday while Djokovic gritted his way through a three-set battle against Daniil Medvedev. The American, with a big serve and powerful flat groundstrokes, has a game well-suited to the conditions in Turin.
He also took Djokovic to five sets at Melbourne Park in 2021. That said, Djokovic won their other four matches in straight sets and in the last decade, no player (save Roger Federer) has been able to live with Djokovic at his best indoors. Fritz has established himself as a very fine player, but if Djokovic plays anything like his best tennis he should have far too much for the American
I’m not the freshest guy right now talking to you,” Novak Djokovic said in an interview after his three-set win over Daniil Medvedev on Friday. Djokovic said it with a smile, because it was an obvious understatement. He had spent much of the afternoon looking exhausted. At one point, his hand shook wildly on the sidelines; at another, he could hardly bring himself to lift his head from the back of his bench.
Yet Djokovic still emerged a winner. The question for us is: Can he do the same against Fritz? We’ve seen Djokovic bounce back from these types of days; putting his troubles behind him is one of his great strengths. That said, he’ll be facing an uphill climb physically. Fritz will come in with nearly two days of rest, while Djokovic will have less than 24 hours. He’ll need to have his legs and his reflexes firing to keep up with Fritz’s powerful serve and forehand.
In the past, Djokovic has never been especially bothered by the American’s game. He’s 5-0 against him, and four of those wins have come in straight sets. Still, they haven’t played since last November. Fritz has taken several steps upward since then, and made his attack as formidable as anyone else’s on a fast surface like this. It will need to be.
As in the first semifinal, the head-to-head here is one-sided. Rublev leads 4-1. But that record comes with some caveats. First, Ruud won their most recent meeting, last year in Turin, in a third-set tiebreaker. Second, one of Rublev’s victories came when Ruud retired down two sets to love to him at the 2021 Australian Open. Third, in the 12 months since their last match, Ruud has reached two Grand Slam finals and passed Rublev in the rankings.
The Norwegian and the Russian aren’t undefeated this week, but they’ve been sharp overall. And clutch. Each is here because he prevailed in a tight third-set tiebreaker: Rublev over Medvedev, 9-7; Ruud over Fritz, 8-6. Each has found a way to adjust to the quick courts by taking the initiative in rallies and using his forehand to maximum effect.
Rublev owns the H2H, but I’ll take Ruud for three reasons: (1) He’ll have an extra day of rest; (2) His heavy-topspin forehand allows him to up his attack while taking a little less risk; and (3) He’s been to two more big finals this season
The plot conclusively made its 180 degree turn in the eighth game. Serving at 3-4, 15-all, Tsitsipas’ forehand betrayed him—one wide, the next into the net. At 30-40, Rublev lined a crisp down-the-line forehand to go ahead 5-3. Though Tsitsipas held a break point in the next game, another sharp down-the-line drive from Rublev—this one a backhand—closed out that opening. Two points later, Rublev wrapped up the set.
In theory, by this stage it should have been anyone’s match. But Tsitsipas by then had slowly become far less proficient. Give lots of credit to Rublev for making that happen, thanks largely to his sustained concentration. Another factor was the ongoing struggle between Tsitsipas and his coaching team. Early in the second set, miffed at his courtside-based parents, Tsitsipas fired a ball in their direction. This was clearly a sign of mental wavering.
The physical unraveling came soon enough, when Tsitsipas was broken at 1-1. By this stage, Rublev was thoroughly in control, commanding the rallies with well-placed serves and his trademark combination of hard, deep forehands and backhands.
Rublev’s return proficiency surfaced mostly vividly later in the third set. Seeking to stay only one service break down, Tsitsipas served at 2-4. At 40-30 and advantage Tsitsipas, Rublev laced untouchable down-the-line forehand return winners—the second off a 131 m.p.h. serve. After failing to convert two more game points, Tsitsipas at deuce double-faulted twice in a row. From there, Rublev held at 15. Over the course of the third set, Rublev had won 27 of 33 points on his serve. Hardly revealing fine sportsmanship, Tsitsipas afterwards cited Rublev’s “few tools” as the keys to his victory.
Said Rublev, “But I don’t think that I beat him because of few tools. If you take our match, every match, we have tough battles. This year I lost to him twice in three sets, and now I beat him in three sets.” As any smart tennis fan knows, subjective judgments whither in the face of objective effectiveness. Today in Turin, Rublev proved the master of the canvas
On February 28, Medvedev became the first player outside of the Big Four to reach No. 1 since Andy Roddick held the top spot in February 2004. He’ll finish 2022 outside of the Top 5 in a year where more than a 500 title and 250 triumph was expected—especially from himself—following a maiden major triumph over Djokovic at the 2021 US Open.
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Despite the disappointing conclusion, Medvedev’s level in the back quarter of the season has given him reason to believe he can regain the form that carried him to the top of the rankings.
“Vienna and Astana I played great. I mean, today I played great. Let’s be honest,” he said.
“I’m confident I’m going to be able to do something big in the future. Just need to continue working. Going to be sad for one, two days, then enjoy my days off, then get ready for the next season.”