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In theory, Grant McCann would have preferred to not have an extra fixture on their schedule, yet their FA Cup replay at Salford City has got Peterborough back on track.
After two matches without a win, Posh were able to beat their League Two hosts by a 3-0 scoreline, Jack Marriott netting twice during the final quarter for his first goals since the start of September.
In the league, McCann can be satisfied with their run since September 24, collecting 19 points from nine games, yet conceding twice in the final five minutes to lose at Exeter City has the potential to knock Peterborough out of their stride.
Despite sitting in fourth, McCann’s side are seven points adrift of the automatic promotion places, their focus instead on the chasing pack with just four points separating them to eighth-placed Barnsley.
Peterborough have netted in each of their last nine third-tier fixtures, a statistic which will not go unnoticed by Bristol Rovers.
Joey Barton has witnessed his side concede nine times in their most recent four league matches and Rovers now possess the third-worst defensive record in the division.
Barton will be content with Rovers remaining seven points clear of the relegation zone, yet he will want his team to get back on track as soon as possible.
Nevertheless, depending on your perception, Rovers can also claim to have lost just once in eight matches, that defeat coming by a 4-2 scoreline at Derby County
Rovers are back at The Mem for the third game in a row as Joey Barton’s side prepares to face Peterborough United in our latest Sky Bet League One challenge. Last time out, Rovers drew 2-2 with Fleetwood Town with Aaron Collins and Josh Coburn grabbing the goals.
Manager’s Preview
The Rovers boss has explained that the upcoming tests against Peterborough United and Bolton Wanderers will be a chance for the Gas to prove that they can mix it with the promotion-chasing sides in the division.
“It’s frustrating and I think when we learn those lessons, I do think we are a good side. It will be up to us whether we are a promotion-chasing side or just a good League Two team that has stayed up quite comfortably in League One, which would be progress for the group.
But I think everyone that comes to watch us, fans and journalists alike, you know we’re better than 17th. How good we are, we’re yet to find out, but we have that feeling ourselves. But at the minute, the league table doesn’t lie and at the end of the 46 games, it won’t lie.
It’s frustrating, we feel we’re a lot better than that, but at this moment in time, we haven’t got the points on the board to show that.
The next two fixtures, if we come out with positive results and positive performances, I think we’ll know we’re at least top 10, if not top eight in the division because I feel Bolton and Peterborough are in that bracket.”
Player Thoughts
James Connolly has said that Rovers are constantly looking at what to improve on.
“We always look at what we can improve on. We want to keep more clean sheets and score more goals. We look at all aspects of our game and we just want to improve.
You just want to win every game and every game is different, I’ve never played the same game twice. If you’re quiet and you win, you’re happy, if it’s a busy game and you win you’re also happy, so I’ll take it as it comes
Peterborough travel to Bristol Rovers at the weekend and this follow both teams’ trends for goals!
The Gas have scored an average of 1.56 goals at home with matches averaging 3.44 goals, whilst they have found the net in eight of their nine home games. Their attacking output is midtable at best, but they do have a habit of scoring goals with just three blanks all season with Ipswich and Barnsley on the road and Accrington at the Memorial Stadium shutting them out. However, they have now conceded 1.89 goals at home keeping just one home clean sheet this term and three in total.
At home it’s not great reading for their defensive metrics. An xGA of 1.24 with just 3 sides having a higher expected goals conceded rate, just two sides conceding more goals, four sides conceding more shots and three sides conceding more shots on target, its not clever, but it does means there is normally goals. Over the last four games they have an xG of 1.49 and xGA of 0.97 but only five sides have conceded more shots in the box over these four games.
Posh are now W5-D1-L2 over their last 8 games scoring an average of 2.12 goals per game, whilst both teams to score have landed in seven of these eight and over 2.5 match goals has landed in seven. Posh have some great attacking options but defensively, especially on the road they struggle to keep the ball out of their net.
On the road they have a record of W3-D0-L6 and so far across these nine games they have failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding two or more on seven occasions. Whilst their attacking output on the road is just above midtable their defensive metrics is well mor aligned to a side facing relegation. Their xGA of 1.20 sits them 14th and 2.00 goals conceded puts them 22nd.
Between these two sides, 78% of their home and away games respectively have seen both teams score and 72% have seen at least three goals. It’s a little crude but with a probability of 72% .
Plymouth let us down last week drawing 1-1 with Lincoln in a game that didn’t quite live up to expectations, but I am happy to go again with them.
The hosts have generally been poor all season despite changing manager. Dino Maamira has come in after a relatively poor spell at Oldham where he won just 28% of games and was sacked after 10 months After 12 games, they have a record of W3-D3-L6 and sit 2nd bottom.
Hunder Dino their games have averaged 3.00 match goals per game, scoring and conceding in 10. Over these 12 games they have been averaging just over 1.1 xG and xGA, which goes in keeping with the goals we have seen.
The Pilgrims have an away record of W4-D3-L2, but they have now conceded in seven of their nine away fixtures with an average of 1.67 goals conceded and the highest xGA in the division on the road at 1.80 per game.
I have them 15th for shots conceded and 23rd for shots on target and 24th for shots in the box conceded, surprising metrics for a side top of the table.
However, at the other end, Plymouth average 2.0 goals score per away fixture finding the net in all nine games. They are 5th for shots taken and no side has more shots on target in the box than they do on the road.
Although James Gibbons was replaced at half time against Fleetwood, it represented a tactical change from Rovers boss Barton.
If there is a switch to a back three, James Connolly will replace Gibbons, otherwise faith may be placed in the same team which started last time out.
Scott Sinclair came through 86 minutes on his first start back at the club and should retain his spot.
Although a much-changed side battled past Salford, the Peterborough XI is likely to be similar to the one which started at Exeter.
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Despite his double in that game, Marriott is expected to miss out on a recall to the attack, but Frankie Kent is in line to feature in the back three after serving a ban.
Bristol Rovers possible starting lineup:
Belshaw; Gibbons, Thomas, Gibson, Gordon; Rossiter, Finley, Evans; Sinclair, Coburn, Collins
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Bergstrom; Edwards, Kent, Butler; Thompson, Taylor, Fuchs, Burrows, Jones; Clarke-Harris, Mason-Clark